Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.